新闻研究显示，提高税收的可能性和英国选举的不确定性，已经阻止了伦敦主要地段的房价上涨。今年第一季度，该区域房价下降了0.5％。

根据房地产公司第一太平戴维斯（Savills）分析，英国房价在第四季度就已出现回调，平均下跌2.6％，主要原因是去年12月英国政府在秋季声明中宣布改革印花税。这意味着，连续12个月上涨的伦敦黄金地段平均房价已陷入负增长。

该报告解释称：“正如我们11月的预测，英国换届选举的不确定性和对高端房产进一步征税的潜在可能性，已经成了导致2015年第一季度该国房地产市场低迷的部分原因。”

该报告还补充说：“伦敦市中心黄金地段的住宅市场受印花税提高的影响最大，现在该市场还有可能被全面征税。鉴于印花税的提高，卖家不得不面对考虑调整价格。也正因如此，伦敦市中心房价才同比下降4.3％。”

研究表明，伦敦西南部主要地段的房价也有类似表现，但受到的影响不那么明显。购房者越来越意识到买房成本的增加，并已经导致该地区高端房产的需求出现回调。相比之下，伊斯灵顿（Islington）、沃平（Wapping）及金丝雀码头（Canary Wharf）的楼市表现较为乐观，年增长率持续走高，尽管市场情绪引发这些地区的房价在过去六个月出现松动。

第一太平戴维斯还指出，“在某种程度上，这反映了一个事实，即较黄金地段低一层次的房地产市场仍保留最强势的表现。总体来说，低于一百万英镑的房屋交易，普遍受益于印花税的变化，且不受税收改革这一政策焦点的影响。”

“有趣的是，在伦敦市场走弱的同时，更多的伦敦人将目光投向了乡村市场。在伦敦市外的主要区域市场中，价格低于2百万英镑的房屋，价格较去年有更好表现，今天第一季度上升1.1％。但是，由于人们在选举前变得更加谨慎，这一市场的交易活动受到抑制。”第一太平戴维斯指出。

该公司还预测，假如英国政府不提高豪宅税，伦敦主要地段的房价在截止2019年的五年中将攀升22.7％。如果是这样，人们将会看到相对快速的房价反弹，类似1998年和2002年的行情——那时伦敦市中心的房价下挫不超过5％，且之后迅速收复失地。

假如英国真的出台豪宅税，第一太平戴维斯预测，在接下来的五年，伦敦主要地段房价净增长将为15.9%，价格低于5百万英镑的房屋价格增长最为强劲，此类房屋的税费增长将会是最温和。

Election uncertainty and higher taxes affecting prime London property market

Higher taxes and election uncertainty have put the brakes on prime London house prices which fell by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015, new research shows.

This follows an average 2.6% downward price adjustment in the final quarter of 2014 that was triggered by the stamp duty reform announced in December’s Autumn Statement, according to the analysis by real estate firm Savills.

It means that the 12 month rolling average for house price growth in the prime London market has now slipped into negative territory.

‘As we forecast in November, uncertainty regarding the general election and the potential for further taxation of high value property have contributed to a subdued market in the first part of 2015,’ the report explains.

‘The prime central London housing markets, that have been most affected by increased stamp duty charges, are looking fully taxed. This has meant sellers are typically having to factor in price adjustments equivalent to the stamp duty increase. Consequently, in central London values are down 4.3% year on year,’ it adds.

The study shows that the markets of prime south west London have been similarly, but less significantly, affected. Buyers have become increasingly aware of the high cost of moving, which has tempered demand in the higher value parts of that market. By contrast, the markets of Islington, Wapping and Canary Wharf continue to show positive annual growth, despite a general sentiment-led easing in values in the past six months.

‘In part, this reflects the fact that lower tiers of the prime market have remained the most robust, with the market below £1 million generally benefiting from the stamp duty changes and unaffected by the political focus on taxation,’ Savills says.

‘Interestingly, the softening in the London markets has corresponded with a pick-up in the number of Londoners circling the country market. Prices of homes below the £2 million threshold in the prime regional markets beyond London continue to show year-on-year price growth, and rose by 1.1% in the first quarter of the year. However, market activity beyond London is still partly constrained by pre-election caution,’ it points out.

Savills is forecasting that prices in the prime London market will rise by 22.7% over the five years to the end of 2019 assuming no further taxation of high value property. In this case there would be a relatively swift bounce back in values as was seen in 1998 and 2002, when price falls in central London were contained to less than 5% and recovered lost ground very quickly thereafter.

In the event of a mansion tax, Savills is forecasting that prices in prime London will rise by a net figure of 15.9% over the same five year period, with the strongest growth in the markets below £5 million where any charges are expected to be least aggressive.