芝加哥房地产投资公司海特曼（Heitman）指出，在经历了全球金融危机后，美国经济这两年正在稳步复苏，房地产行业也有强劲的表现。

玛丽‧勒德金指出，中国投资者应该在美国沿海区外更广泛的市场上投资房地产

 海特曼研究负责人玛丽‧勒德金（Mary Ludgin）称，除了投资沿海地区外，中国投资者应该放眼更广泛的美国市场。“需求方面看上去很强劲，” 勒德金说，“就业增长是大多数房产类型的发展空间需求的最佳指标。虽然最近几个月就业增长小幅放缓，当增速仍足以调节现在的房地产发展空间。”

 部分需求是来自目标在获取稳定高回报的海外投资者。海特曼指出，在过去的四年中，美国高端房产交易中平均有10%来自海外投资者，高于金融危机前7％的水平。

 去年，中国超越加拿大成为美国房地产最大的外国投资者。今年上半年，中国人注资50亿美元进军美国楼市，超过去年全年总额。有媒体报道说，越来越多的中国人为了脱离动荡的中国股市而购买海外房产。

 勒德金表示，尽管施工量有所增加，但美国房产租赁需求企稳，降低了空置率和提升了各类型房产的租金。但是，这并不能使市场摆脱又一场经济危机可能性带来的风险，因为房地产行业往往具有周期性。

 “我并不是说经济衰退要来临，”勒德金说，“我们没有看到任何过度建设的迹象，但我们要时刻留意经济扩张将在某一时期结束。这将重塑我们投资组合的多样性和我们所要承受的风险。”

 要建立能够承受经济危机投资组合的其中一个方法是，寻找那些与美国国民经济增长没有密切关系的房地产类型，如短期租赁住宅地产，包括学生宿舍和高级住宅。相比经济危机时的零售和办公物业，这类地产复苏更快并能产生较高的收益率。

购房者应谨慎对待城市中心的成熟办公楼开发，这些地方的交房时间偏长，一旦经济衰退产生，需求和租金收益可能就没了。

勒德金还表示，中国买家偏爱美国沿海房地产，但只有纽约的房地产持续表现强劲，太多的资金涌入一个领域往往会“哄抬价格和降低回报”。“我强烈建议投资者将眼界放开，” 她说，“美国拥有大量值得考虑的非沿海地区房地产，那些地区有高于平均水平的就业及人口增长，这两个因素往往与强劲的房地产表现相一致。”

本文系居外网度独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载，否则将追究法律责任。
关注居外网官方微信:居外资讯（juwai-com），每日阅读精选海外文章。

（点击下一页，查看英文原文）

Strengthening US property market attracting interest of Chinese buyers


Mary Ludgin says Chinese investors should look more broadly beyond coastal areas in the US property market

The US economy is recovering steadily 72 months after the global financial crisis, and its real estate sector is enjoying stronger performance, Chicago real estate investment firm Heitman says.

"The demand side looks strong," said Mary Ludgin, its head of research. "Job growth is the best predictor of space demand across most property types. Although it has slowed a bit in recent months, it still remains enough to justify the amount of space we have currently."

Part of that demand is from overseas investors eyeing high, stable returns.

Heitman says that over the past four years, overseas buyers have accounted for an average of 10 per cent of US primary property transactions, up from 7 per cent before the financial crisis.

Chinese overtook Canadians as the largest foreign investors in the US market last year, and in the first half of this year they poured about US$5 billion into real estate, more than the total for all of last year. And more are looking to get off the volatile Chinese stock market and buy overseas property, media reports say.

Ludgin said the US real estate sector had generally seen solid tenant demand, which had brought down vacancy rates and lifted rents across almost all property types despite an increase in construction. But that did not rid the market of risks posed by the possibility of another economic crisis, since real estate tended to be cyclical.

"I'm not calling a recession," she said. "We are not seeing any indications of excesses building up, but we need to be constantly mindful economic expansion will end at some point. And that shapes how we diversify portfolios and the risks we take on."

One way to build a portfolio able to withstand a crisis is looking at property types that are not closely connected to national economic growth in the US, such as short-term leased residential property, including student accommodation and senior housing, which recovers faster and generates higher yields than retail and office property in times of economic stress.

Buyers should be cautious about pursuing ground-up office developments in city centres, where delivery time is a bit longer and demand and rents likely to freeze once a recession kicks in.

Ludgin said Chinese buyers preferred coastal markets, but only New York had shown consistently strong outperformance. She said too much capital in one area tended to "bid up prices and bid down returns".

"I would urge investors to look more broadly," she said. "The US has a plethora of strong non-coastal locations that merit consideration because of above-average job creation or population growth, factors that tend to coincide with strong real estate performance."