一家房产机构预测,英国房价预计将在未来5年内增长25%,主要因为待售房屋的严重短缺。
[caption id="attachment_133542" align="aligncenter" width="550"] 英国房价预计在未来五年劲升25%![/caption]英国皇家特许测量师学会(Rics)指出,待售房屋的供应(以特许测量师地产中介记录的平均数)已降至1978年1月以来的最低水平。英国皇家特许测量师学会补充说,预计中选举后的供应反弹未能实现,与4月份相比,西北部和伦敦供应量环比降幅最大。
英国皇家特许测量师学会指出,每个测量师平均房屋供应量维持在52套,自2015年初以来下跌约12%。与此同时,新买家询盘以一年多最快的速度增加。因此,5月房价再次上涨,而且涨得比4月份更快。
一些经济学家已经指出,由于保守党当政,价格将开始再次上升。6月早些时候,F&C投资公司基金管理首席经济学家史蒂文·贝尔(Steven Bell)表示,楼市重新具备了繁荣的条件。
与此同时,哈利法克斯(Halifax)房地产经济学家马丁·埃利斯(Martin Ellis)上周警告称,住房供应“仍然非常紧张”。“供给和需求之间的不平衡可能会在未来几个月内继续推高房价。”哈利法克斯和全英房屋抵押贷款协会(Nationwide Building Society)都把英国房屋的平均价格定在19.5万至19.6万英镑。
英国皇家特许测量师学会首席经济学家西蒙·罗宾逊(Simon Rubinsohn)说:“有希望消除政治不确定性,这将鼓励更多的房产进入市场;但最初的迹象表明,这不是证明如此。因此, 全国大部分地区价格继续被推高并不奇怪,房产变得越来越负担不起。”
他补充说,英国皇家特许测量师学会成员的反馈中指出, 在接下来的五年,房产价格总体水平将上涨25%。他说,其成员没有信心政府能在短时间内推出有效措施大力推动新供应。
萨里郡(Surrey)阿什福德(Ashford)弗罗斯特合伙企业(Frost Partnership)一位特许测量师对英国皇家特许测量师学会表示:“现售房产供不应求,推高要价,在某些情况下更将价格推到不切实际的水平。”
同时,位于伦敦市中心,专做高端房产投资的柯曾地产(Curzon Land)的克里斯托弗·格林(Christopher Green)为选举结果欢呼,他告诉英国皇家特许测量师学会:“市场乐观情绪高涨,由于工党未来五年不再执政。”
高价令更多人无法买房,对租户来说还有个坏消息——英国皇家特许测量师学会成员预测租金在未来12个月内将平均上涨近3%。该组织称,这反映了一个事实:物业租赁需求持续增加。“受访者预计,英国所有地区的租金将在未来三个月上涨,而中东部和西南部上涨幅度最高,”它补充道。UK house prices 'will rise 25% in next five years'
UK house prices are forecast to rise by 25% over the next five years and become “ever more unaffordable”, largely because of an acute shortage of homes for sale, a leading property body has warned.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said the supply of homes for sale – as measured by the average number on a chartered surveyor estate agent’s books – had fallen to its lowest level since records began in January 1978. It added that an anticipated post-general election “supply bounce” had failed to materialise, with the north-west and London seeing the sharpest drop in instructions compared with April.
The average stock of houses per surveyor now stands at 52, down by around 12% since the start of 2015. At the same time, new buyer inquiries increased at their fastest rate in more than a year. As a result, house prices rose again in May, and at a quicker pace than in April, said Rics.
Several economists have already suggested that prices will start to rise again now that a majority Conservative government is in place. Earlier this month, Steven Bell, chief economist at City fund manager F&C Investments, said boom conditions had returned to the housing market.
Meanwhile, the Halifax’s housing economist, Martin Ellis, last week warned that housing supply “remains extremely tight”. “The imbalance between supply and demand is likely to continue to push up house prices over the coming months.” The Halifax and Nationwide building society both put the average price of a UK home at £195,000-£196,000.
Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics, said: “There had been some hope that the removal of political uncertainty would encourage more properties on to the market, but the initial indications are that this is not proving to be the case. As a result, it is hardly surprising that prices across much of the country are continuing to be squeezed higher, with property set to become ever more unaffordable.”
He added that the feedback Rics was receiving from its members “points to prices at a headline level rising by another 25% over the next five years”. He said that suggested there was no real confidence among its members that effective measures to provide a major boost to new supply would be delivered by the government any time soon.
One chartered surveyor, the Frost Partnership in Ashford, Surrey, told Rics: “Listings are in very short supply, which is pushing up asking prices to unrealistic levels in some cases.”
Meanwhile, Christopher Green at Curzon Land in central London, which specialises in “prime property investments”, was clearly cheered by the election result, telling Rics that “the market has gained an immense amount of optimism now that the socialist spectre has been removed for the next five years”.
The bad news for tenants – on top of many people being unable to buy because of high prices – is that Rics members are also predicting rent rises averaging almost 3% over the next 12 months. The body said this reflected the fact that demand for rental properties was continuing to increase. “Contributors [to the survey] anticipate that rents will rise across all parts of the UK over the next three months, with expectations most elevated in the East Midlands and the south-west,” it added.
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