加拿大道明银行（TD Bank）认为，随着油价下跌，能源生产地区的住房市场受重挫，除了两个最热的房地产市场，加拿大房价今年开始全面下行。

该行预测，只有安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省 ——分别受多伦多市和温哥华市常年火爆的房地产市场推动，在2015年能躲过房屋价格和销量下跌。该行认为，安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省的房价今年将分别上涨3.1％和2.9％。

不过，该行指出：“2014年的房价进一步上涨某程度上削弱了支付能力，将有可能成为安大略省和不列颠哥伦比亚省的市场阻力。”

多伦多和温哥华的强势将小幅推高全年平均房价约1.6%，但加拿大整体房屋销售预期下滑1.7%。

道明银行预测，在2015年，阿尔伯塔省的房屋销售将暴跌逾20％，价格下跌3.5％；萨斯喀彻温省销售将降低6.7％，价格下挫3％。该行报告称，萨斯喀彻温省的“住房市场出现极度疲软的迹象”，尽管相比阿尔伯塔省，它的经济更加多样化。

该行还称，这三个原油生产大省和加拿大其他地区之间的“经济表现将出现巨大的差距。”

这对安大略省反倒是好消息。在该行看来，安大略省将引领加拿大经济增长，预计该省GDP在2015年将增长2.8％，2016年将增长2.5％。制造商的能源成本有所降低，加元走弱令出口更具竞争力，“安大略省特别能从中受益”，该行在报告中写道。

另外，报告还指出，政府支出也将拖累阿尔伯塔省的经济发展，由于石油收入减少，该省面临数十亿加元的预算缺口。阿尔伯塔省今年的经济发展“预期将几乎停滞不前”，GDP增长仅为0.5％，2016年将反弹至1.8%，但仍大幅落后于该省于近年的经济增速。

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TD Bank sees house prices coming down in all but Canada’s two hottest markets this year, with falling oil prices taking an especially large bite out of the housing markets in energy producing regions.

Only Ontario and British Columbia — propelled by the seemingly perennially hot housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver — will avoid falling prices and sales in 2015, the bank forecast. The bank sees house prices rising 3.1 per cent in Ontario this year, and 2.9 per cent in B.C.

“However, decreases in affordability tied in part to further gains in home prices over 2014 will likely act as a growing headwind in markets in Ontario and B.C.,” the bank noted.

The strength of Toronto and Vancouver will help pull average house prices up for the year, by a relatively small 1.6 per cent, but overall home sales across Canada are expected to fall 1.7 per cent this year.

The worst of it will be felt in the economies that, in recent years, have benefitted most from what used to be high oil prices — Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland.

TD bank sees home sales plunging by more than 20 per cent in Alberta this year, with prices falling 3.5 per cent. Saskatchewan will see sales drop 6.7 per cent and prices fall three per cent.

The report sees “signs of extreme weakness in the housing market” in the province, despite its more-diverse economy when compared to Alberta.

Oil Producers Will Have Slowest Economies

TD Bank predicts “a sharp widening in economic performance” between the three oil-producing provinces and the rest of Canada.

That’s good news for Ontario, which the bank says will lead economic growth in Canada this year and next, with GDP growing 2.8 per cent in 2015 and 2.5 per cent in 2016.

With lower energy costs for manufacturers and a lower loonie making exports more competitive, “Ontario ... is particularly well-positioned to benefit,” the bank writes.

TD predicts Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland will see the slowest economic growth among Canadian provinces, with Newfoundland’s economy outright shrinking by 1.1 per cent over the course of 2015 and 2016.

Alberta’s economy is “projected to grind to a virtual standstill” this year, with GDP growing a paltry 0.5 per cent and then some bounce-back to 1.8-per-cent GDP growth in 2016. Still, that is a much slower pace than Alberta had seen in recent years.

The TD report notes that government spending in Alberta will also be a drag on its economy, as the province grapples with a multi-billion-dollar budget hole from lower oil revenues.