投机性投资者是推动澳大利亚房地产市场火热的中坚力量，在过去的一年将地区住宅地产价值推高了5000亿澳元。据路透社报道，事实上，超过半数获得贷款审批的新住房是用来投资的。

澳洲房产投资四面受压 炒房者陷入“天堂里的烦恼”

但这种情况可能很快就会迎来改变。高盛（Goldman Sachs）在8月3日（周一）发布的一份报告中指出：“随着房地产市场动能继续发挥效应，我们预计，接下来，租金收益率将会创历史新低，再加上新的宏观审慎政策将针对投资者的房地产贷款，很可能会考验房产需求，特别是来自投资者对房产的需求。”该银行在报告中补充道，这可能导致房价增速放缓。

澳大利亚央行——澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）一再表示对近几个月房地产市场投机行为的担忧，担心投机者突然撤退，可能引发住房市场大幅修正，进而损害整体经济，特别是考虑到60％的家庭财富是投放在物业资产上。不过，尽管房价一直上涨，预计在8月4日（周二）举行的政策审议上，央行也不会采取任何行动。
 
跟高盛一样，安保资本（AMP Capital）投资策略主管兼首席经济学家谢恩•奥利弗（Shane Oliver）认为投资者的需求下滑可能会使房价增长放缓。然而，他补充道，唯一能引发房价下跌的是澳大利亚央行迅速拉升利率，使其远高于目前2%水平，而这种情形似乎不大可能会发生。

CoreLogic RPData 8月3日分析指出，今年7月，澳大利亚州府城市租金同比小幅上升0.9%，是有记录以来的最低增速。这使得毛租金收益率再创新低，尽管当月房价上涨11.1%，创2014年4月以来的最高水平。
 
“当你考虑到在过去的12个月，悉尼租金仅增加了2.5%，而房价上升了18.4%，很容易看出收益率越来越收到挤压。” CoreLogic RPData研究主管蒂姆•劳利斯（Tim Lawless）在8月3日发表的一份声明中解释道。
 
在投资活动量最高的城市之一墨尔本，租金收益率约为3%，是澳大利亚州府城市中的最低水平。2015年7月份，住宅价格同比上升11.5%。劳利斯称，这表明低收益率并没有抑制投资。但是，低收益率加上新出台政策打击投资者贷款，房产投资前景暗淡。

7月下旬，澳大利亚审慎监管局（APRA）宣布提高银行住房抵押贷款资本规定的要求，其中包括资本金增加2%，住房按揭贷款风险权重从目前的16%增加到25%。在这项新措施出台之前，6月数据显示，多数银行超过澳大利亚审慎监管局规定的投资住房贷款年度增长10%的上限。

为了应对澳大利亚审慎监管局的新举措，包括西太平洋银行（Westpac）、澳新银行（ANZ）以及安保资本在内的金融机构上周（7月27日至8月2日）均宣布紧缩措施，如减少对外国投资者的贷款、提高投资贷款利率、甚至停止投资住房借贷。

劳利斯还预计,最近接二连三的发展将成为影响投资者兴趣的主要障碍。“信贷收紧，加上抵押贷款利率提高的潜在可能性，以及澳大利亚银行机构投资贷款增长受限这些因素加起来，将促使市场上投资者需求放缓。”

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Trouble in paradise for Australia's property speculators

Speculative investors are a major force in Australia's red-hot property market, helping push the value of residential property half a trillion dollars higher in the past year. In fact, more than half of new home loan approvals are for investment purposes, according to Reuters.

But that could soon change.

"While momentum in the housing market continues to take effect, we expect that going forward, record low rental yields accompanied by [new] macro prudential policies targeted at investor lending are likely to provide a test for housing demand, particularly from investors," Goldman Sachs said in a Monday report. That could see home prices increase at a more moderate pace, the bank added.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has repeatedly voiced its concern over speculation in property markets in recent months, fearing that a sudden withdrawal by speculators could trigger a sharp housing correction, which in turn could hurt the broader economy, particularly given that 60 percent of household wealth is tied up in property assets. But despite rising home prices, the central bank isn't expected to take any action at Tuesday's policy review.

Like Goldman, Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP Capital, believes lower investor demand could dampen home price growth going forward. He added, however, that an unlikely scenario in which the RBA rapidly increased interest rates well above the current 2 percent level would be the only event to trigger home price declines.

Analysis by CoreLogic RPData on Monday showed rental growth across Australia's capital cities edging up an annual 0.9 percent in July, the slowest pace on record. That pushed gross rental yields to new lows even as July house prices surged 11.1 percent on year, the highest since April 2014.

"When you consider that Sydney rents have increased by just 2.5 percent over the past twelve months while values have climbed 18.4 percent, it is easy to see how yields are getting squashed," explained Tim Lawless, CoreLogic RP Data's head of research, in a statement on Monday.

In Melbourne, one of the cities with the highest amount of investor activity, yields are around 3 percent - the lowest among Australia's capital cities. Dwelling values meanwhile rose an annual 11.5 percent in July. This suggests that that low yields alone haven't been enough to discourage investment, according to Lawless.
But combined with new crackdown on lending practices, the outlook for investor interest is dimming.

In late July the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) introduced fresh capital rules for banks' mortgage portfolios, including a 2 percent increase in capital to be held against the loans and an increase in risk weighting on home loans from 16 to 25 percent. The new measures came after June data showed the majority of banks exceeded APRA's 10 percent ceiling on annual investment home loan growth.

In response to APRA, financial institutions including Westpac, ANZ and AMP have announced tightening measures in the past week, such as curtailing loans to foreign investors, introducing higher interest rates for investor loans, and even halting investor home lending.

Lawless also expects the recent spate of developments to be a major obstacle for investor interest.

"The combined effect of tighter lending parameters, potentially higher mortgage rates for investment loans as well as limitations on the pace of investment lending imposed on Australia's banks should conspire to slow investor demand in the market."