根据一份新的英国房地产前景发展报告称，2014年伦敦商业地产市场租金大幅上涨，并有望在2015年继续保持上涨势头。同时施罗德（Schroders)报告指出，英国经济复苏与低水平发展显示商业地产供需平衡对业主更为有利。

该报告称，2014年英国商业地产发展迅猛，无杠杆收益可能接近20%。因投资者寻求收益，今年大部分房地产业绩均由于房价下降而促成的。展望2015年，总体回报率有望达到双位数。商业地产租赁增长为此作出巨大贡献，预计商业地产租金上涨速度将加快。

报告分析指出，在办公楼租赁方面，伦敦市中心崛起成为国际会计，法律，媒体和科技公司的聚集地，促使办公楼空置率回落到金融危机前的水平。此外，城市的黄金地段和英国西部，发展较慢的地区如法灵顿，国王十字区和南岸地区的办公楼空置率也得以改善。

同时报告称，人口数量大幅上升后，伦敦大部分地区的零售业租金上涨。越来越多的年轻人选择住在伦敦市区而不是像父母那样搬到郊区居住。这样会使布里克斯顿，哈克尼和新十字区等之前较落后的地区得到迅速发展。

伦敦外部地区的租金上涨幅度不一，部分地区房地产市场已复苏。例如在曼彻斯特的办公楼因有赖专业服务行业的蓬勃发展成为地级市中表现出色的地区。此外，布里斯托尔，爱丁堡等城市和一些较小的市场如阿伯丁，布莱顿，剑桥和雷丁等拥有强劲本土经济的地区均有良好的办公空间需求。

英国西南部和中部地区工业地产租金上涨2%。该报告指出这是由于来自传统的土地占有人，如建筑商的开发需求周期性复苏，同时受在线零售业推动，快递包裹数量急速增加，需要更多的仓储空间。

总的来说，随着英国经济逐步改善，商业地产租金进一步上涨，所得收益相当可观，预计明年英国商业地产将有更好的发展。最新的投资房地产论坛（Investment Property Forum）预测指出，2015年英国商业地产的总回报率将在10%到12%之间。

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London commercial property market expected to see strongest rental growth in 2015

London’s commercial property market experienced the strongest rental growth in 2014 and is expected it to stay in the lead over the next 12 months, according to a new outlook report.

The recovery in the UK economy combined with low levels of development means that the balance between demand and supply is now swinging in favour of landlords, the report from Schroders also says.

The report says that 2014 has been a good year for UK commercial real estate and unleveraged total returns are likely to be close to 20%. Most of this year’s performance has been driven by a favourable fall in property yields, as investors seek income.

‘Looking ahead to 2015 we expect that total returns will remain in double figures, but that rental growth will make a larger contribution. The recovery in the economy combined with low levels of development means that the balance between demand and supply is now swinging in favour of landlords and we anticipate that rental growth will accelerate,’ explained Owen.

In the office sector, the emergence of central London as a powerhouse for international accountancy, law, media and technology companies has pushed vacancy rates back down to pre-crisis levels, not just in the prime locations of the City and West End, but also in less established areas such as Farringdon, Kings Cross and the South Bank, the outlook explains.

Similarly, the report says that retail rents in many parts of London are rising on the back of strong population growth. There are also an increasing numbers of young professionals who choose to live in inner London rather than copy their parents and move to the suburbs. This is leading to the rapid gentrification of areas such as Brixton, Hackney and New Cross which were previously relatively poor.

While rental growth outside London is patchier, some regional markets are definitely coming out of hibernation, the report also says. For example, in Manchester the office sector stands out as the strongest of the big regional cities, thanks to the success of its professional services. ‘In addition, we are also seeing good demand for office space in Bristol and Edinburgh and certain smaller markets such as Aberdeen, Brighton, Cambridge and Reading with strong local economies,’ said Owen.
 
In the industrial market, rents are now rising by 2% across the South East and Midlands and the report says that part of this is due to a cyclical upturn in demand from traditional occupiers such as builders’ merchants, but part is also due to the rapid growth in parcels, driven by online retail.
  
Overall, and given a reasonably high yield and a further rental growth as the economy improves, we expect that next year will see another solid performance from UK commercial real estate.  The latest Investment Property Forum (IPF) Consensus Forecast suggests total returns of between 10 % and 12% in 2015.