前言：2014年初至今，受一系列房地产降温措施影响，新加坡私人住宅市场已经连续八个季度下滑。对外国人而言，18%的印花税将大批外国买家挡在门外；对当地人，总债务偿还率框架（每个人每月的总债务偿还比例不得超过月收入的60%）与一路下滑的房价也让更多人对购房持观望态度。买房的人少了，新推出的项目却还未减少。几年前新加坡地产热时期，开发商们花高价买下地皮，必须在规定时间内开工建设；而一旦新项目建成，开发商也必须在规定时间内出售，否则将会被政府罚款。这表示许多新项目的推出已是板上钉钉，供大于求的局面还将持续一阵子。

新加坡海峡时报近期通过对开发商与房地产中介的采访，指出供大于求的局面将导致新加坡私人住宅房价继续面临下行压力。不过，随着开发商加大促销力度与买家对降温措施常态化的认可，新加坡私人住宅市场的需求应会稳中有升。

原文编译：

新加坡私人房市将继续面临寒冬

分析师称，新加坡明年的房地产市场不会出现大幅回调，但供过于求和信贷收紧等一系列因素将使得私人住宅和执行共管公寓(EC)价格持续低迷。他们还警告说，房地产降温措施短期内似乎不太可能中止，因为房价下跌并未影响到大多数业主。

新加坡私人房市将继续面临寒冬

北园公寓 (North Park Residences)

几天前，世邦魏理仕(CBRE)东南亚研究部负责人Desmond Sim先生对《海峡时报》表示：“大多数开发商仍然强势，房价坚挺，过去几年持续的高房价给他们提供了底气。“除非开发商愿意牺牲一大部分利润，否则新的销售价格应该很难改变。”

根据莱坊(Knight Frank)新加坡研究主管Alice Tan女士，明年，新房价格可能会下跌3％至5％，那些有许多未出售房屋的项目跌幅可能更大。

智信研究与咨询(R'ST Research)研究总监Ong Kah Seng指出，执行共管公寓的前景也好不到哪去，均价从今年上半年的800新加坡元每平方尺下跌到下半年的780新加坡元每平方尺。执行共管公寓的均价明年或更低，预计在750至780新加坡元每平方尺，他补充说。

库存是困扰新加坡私人房地产市场的一个关键问题，市场约有24,000新房单位有待出售。除库存量大外，合格证书(Qualifying Certificate)的处罚和额外的买家印花税(ABSD)也令开发商面临越来越大的压力，Ong Kah Seng还说。

OrangeTee研究经理Wong Xian Yang指出，因市场实际情况越来越棘手，开发商今年已在调整价格。以大型私宅项目优景园(The Panorama)项目为例，房价中位数从去年一月刚推出时的1,343新加坡元每平方尺下滑到今年10月的1,226新加坡元每平方尺。另一个大型私宅项目Sims Urban Oasis的房价从2月推出时的1,397新加坡元每平方英尺下跌到10月的1,285新加坡元每平方尺。

显然，购房者——受总债务偿还比例(Total Debt Servicing ratio)和额外买方印花税政策的管制——变得更加挑剔。

星狮恒美(Frasers Centrepoint Homes)的市场营销总经理Elson Poo先生表示，他们的关注重点是有价格吸引力及其他价值的项目，如有生活方式概念或位处黄金地段。

截至目前，Frasers Centrepoint出售了约760个单元，很大程度上要归功于北园公寓(North Park Residences)的热卖。

开发商中冶置业(MCC Land)在新加坡销售已经创下新纪录，同比去年的354个单元上涨55％。如果中冶置业将其替商皓源投资(Hao Yuan Investment)管理的项目算进去，总销售量则已达到487个单元，与去年的470个单元接近。

今年新私宅销售略微减少。前10个月，私人市场的新房总销售量为6,619套，同比去年下降4％。私人住宅的库存一直在下降。莱坊Alice Tan指出，第三季度的库存量为24,149套，同比下降了18%，相比两年前下降25％。“尽管有约2％至3％的中等水平跌幅，价格调整加上被压抑的需求——尤其是来自当地的购房者的需求，已经帮助改善了过去两个季度中的购房量，”她补充说。

根据OrangeTee，二手房市场方面，今年价格排在前五名的项目相比2013年已经下跌6％至11％，尽管有一个项目的价格有所上升。

Wong Xian Yang表示，二手房售量可能已经有所增加，但考虑到明年的完工量和有限的外国劳工人数，预期租金会保持疲软。

21世纪房产(Century 21)的首席执行官Ku Swee Yong表示，执行共管公寓的开发商可能更急于出售那些有逾300个单元库存的项目，如Sol Acres、The Criterion和The Terrace。“看起来，今年年初收入上限被调到14,000新加坡元也并没有带来很多购房者，”他说。

总体而言，相比2013年第三季度最后一个高峰期，新加坡私人住宅价格下调约8％。

结语：2015年新加坡大选之后，新政府表示房地产降温措施正在起到预期的效果，并不会在短时间内移除。因此在接下来的一段时间内，新加坡私人住宅市场供大于求的基本状况并不会发生大的变化。这样的市场行情不仅存在于销售市场，租赁市场也彻底沦为“租客市场”。作为一个城市国家，新加坡的出租需求并没有庞大的基数，加之近期外籍人士工作政策的不断缩紧，使得出租需求增长缓慢。另一方面，大量新公寓在今年竣工，很多本来打算出售的屋主也因为选择对房市进一步观望而选择暂时出租，这些都使得租赁供给大涨。这样一来，租金的连月下滑也就不足为奇了。

综上所述，目前新加坡私人住宅市场中短期投资回报并不被看好。加之新加坡投资门槛很高，最便宜的新建公寓每平方米售价超过4万人民币，市中心房价则更常常超过10万人民币，眼下花大代价投资新加坡私人住宅可能并不是最好的选择。

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Prices of private homes in Singapore likely to stay depressed

There will not be a major correction next year but factors from oversupply to lending curbs will keep prices of private homes and executive condominiums (EC) depressed, say analysts. They also warn that any let up on cooling measures seems unlikely in the near term as the price falls have not affected most owners.

Mr Desmond Sim, CBRE research head for South-east Asia, told The Straits Times yesterday: "Most developers are still propped up by holding power as well as land prices, which continued to be quite high over the past year.

"Unless developers are willing to take a big cut in profits, new sale prices should be quite stubborn."

Prices of new homes could fall 3 to 5 per cent next year although projects with many unsold units may cut even more, according to Ms Alice Tan, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore.

The prospects are no better for ECs, with average prices coming down from a high of over $800 per sq ft (psf) in the first half of this year to $780 psf in this half, said R'ST Research director Ong Kah Seng. Average EC pricing next year should be lower, at $750 to $780 psf, he added.

Unsold stock is a key issue bedevilling the private market, with around 24,000 new units languishing in the market. Apart from the amount of unsold units, developers will be under increasing pressure to sell due to Qualifying Certificate penalties and the Additional Buyers' Stamp Duty (ABSD), he added.

Developers have been trimming prices all year as market realities began to bite. Median prices at The Panorama, for example, fell from $1,343 psf at initial launch in January last year to $1,226 psf in October, noted Mr Wong Xian Yang, OrangeTee research manager.

Sims Urban Oasis prices were down from $1,397 psf at the February launch to $1,285 psf in October.

It is clear that buyers - governed by both the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and ABSD - are being more selective.

Mr Elson Poo, general manager of marketing and sales at Frasers Centrepoint Homes, said they are focusing on projects that offer attractive pricing as well as other value propositions such as lifestyle concepts or prime locations.

Frasers Centrepoint has sold around 760 units so far this year, largely thanks to the popular North Park Residences.

Developer MCC Land has also chalked up a tidy number of sales this year, up 55 per cent from last year to 354 units. If MCC Land includes development projects that it manages for Hao Yuan Investment, its total sales would be 487, similar to 470 units sold last year.

While slightly fewer new private home sales took place this year - the tally of 6,619 units in the first 10 months was 4 per cent lower than last year's - the unsold stock of private homes has been falling. There were 24,149 units unsold in the third quarter, an 18 per cent fall from the same time last year and 25 per cent down compared with two years ago, noted Ms Tan of Knight Frank. "The adjustment of prices, albeit at a moderate level from about 2 to 3 per cent discount, coupled with pent-up demand, especially from local homebuyers, has helped improve take-up rates in the last two quarters," she added.

In the resale market, prices at the top five projects this year have fallen between 6 and 11 per cent from 2013, according to OrangeTee, although prices rose at one of the developments.

Resale volumes may have increased but rents are still expected to remain soft due to the many completions expected next year and limited growth in foreign labour numbers, said Mr Wong of OrangeTee.

EC developers could get more desperate to sell where there are more than 300 unsold units at a project, such as Sol Acres, The Criterion and The Terrace, said Mr Ku Swee Yong, Century 21 chief executive officer.

"The raised income ceiling of $14,000 (earlier this year) does not seem to have brought in many buyers," he said.

Overall, private home prices are down about 8 per cent from their last peak in the third quarter of 2013.